8 September 2025,03:55
Daily Market Analysis
8 September 2025, 03:55
*The group confirmed a 137,000 bpd supply increase for October, extending recent downside pressure on crude.
*Ukraine-Russia conflict flared, with major strikes and U.S. threats of fresh sanctions fueling supply-risk concerns.
*Oil steadies off lows as traders weigh output growth against geopolitical risk premiums and fragile demand.
OPEC+ concluded its virtual meeting on Sunday by confirming a planned production increase of 137,000 barrels per day for October, a move that reinforces the group’s strategy of gradually restoring supply amid uncertain demand conditions. The decision initially extended oil’s recent bearish momentum, with prices having declined for three consecutive sessions and testing support near the $62.00 level.
However, a sharp escalation in geopolitical tensions over the weekend has reintroduced supply-side risks to the market. Ukraine launched targeted counterstrikes against Russian energy and military infrastructure, prompting retaliatory aerial assaults from Moscow—reportedly among the largest since the conflict began. In response, former U.S. President Donald Trump indicated plans to implement a “second phase” of sanctions targeting Russian energy exports, raising the prospect of potential disruptions to global supply.
Crude prices are now attempting a tentative rebound from multi-session lows as traders balance OPEC+’s planned output increase against the possibility of renewed supply shocks. While fundamental pressures remain—including concerns over global economic growth and refined fuel demand—geopolitical instability has reintroduced volatility and a bid for risk premiums.
Market participants will closely monitor developments in Eastern Europe and any forthcoming U.S. policy announcements for indications of potential supply impacts. A sustained escalation could propel prices higher, though gains may be limited if demand concerns persist.
Technical Analysis
Oil prices have resumed their downward trajectory, declining more than 6% over recent sessions after a brief rally faltered near resistance levels. The commodity has broken below its short-term downtrend channel and is now testing crucial support near the $62.55 per barrel level—a zone that previously provided a foundation for rebounds. A sustained break below this threshold would signal a deterioration in market structure and likely open the path toward deeper losses, with next major support seen near the $60.00 psychological level.
Momentum indicators reflect strengthening bearish sentiment. The Relative Strength Index has declined into oversold territory, indicating persistent selling pressure, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence has crossed below its zero line, confirming that downward momentum is accelerating.
Resistance Levels: 65.45, 67.90
Support Levels: 60.40, 58.10
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