4 September 2025,06:05
Daily Market Analysis
4 September 2025, 06:05
*Stronger GDP growth (+0.6% QoQ) and a AUD 7.31B trade surplus reinforced the Aussie’s bullish momentum.
*Persistent inflation and resilient domestic demand are leading markets to scale back rate-cut expectations.
*AUD/USD is testing 0.6800 resistance, with scope to target 0.6850 if risk sentiment and China’s outlook remain supportive.
The Australian dollar advanced for a second consecutive week, with AUD/USD gaining nearly 2% as stronger-than-expected economic data reinforced the currency’s upward momentum. Australia’s GDP grew 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, exceeding market consensus, driven by a rebound in household spending and improved domestic demand. The robust print has fueled expectations that inflationary pressures may prove more persistent, supporting a hawkish repricing of Reserve Bank of Australia rate expectations.
Further reinforcing the Aussie’s strength, the latest trade balance data showed a surplus of AUD 7.31 billion, comfortably above forecasts. The result reflects ongoing resilience in both export volumes and import compression, underscoring the economy’s external robustness amid global demand uncertainties.
The combination of firm domestic activity and a healthy trade position has led markets to reassess the timing and extent of potential RBA easing, with swap markets now pricing in a more gradual easing cycle compared to major peers like the Fed and ECB.
AUD/USD is now trading near three-week highs, with technical resistance emerging near the 0.6800 handle. A sustained break above this level could open the path toward the late-May high near 0.6850, particularly if global risk sentiment remains supportive and China-related concerns continue to ease.
The Australian dollar continues to trade with a firm bullish bias against the New Zealand dollar, maintaining position within a well-defined uptrend channel after breaking decisively above the key psychological resistance level of 1.1000. The pair has advanced to its highest level since March, supported by relative monetary policy divergence and stronger Australian economic data.
Although the pair is experiencing a minor technical retracement from recent highs, it remains well-supported above its immediate support level near 1.1115. A sustained hold above this level would be viewed as a consolidation within the broader uptrend, potentially setting the stage for further gains toward the next resistance zone near 1.1250.
Momentum indicators continue to support the constructive outlook. The Relative Strength Index is hovering near overbought territory, reflecting persistent buying pressure, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence remains in positive territory following a recent bullish crossover and continues to trend higher, confirming that upward momentum is strengthening.
Resistance level: 1.1170, 1.1250
Support level: 1.1055, 1.0990
Step into the world of trading with confidence today. Open a free PU Prime live CFD trading account now to experience real-time market action, or refine your strategies risk-free with our demo account.
This content is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, a personal recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments.
This material has been prepared without considering any individual investment objectives, financial situations. Any references to past performance of a financial instrument, index, or investment product are not indicative of future results.
PU Prime makes no representation as to the accuracy or completeness of this content and accepts no liability for any loss or damage arising from reliance on the information provided. Trading involves risk, and you should carefully consider your investment objectives and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions. Never invest more than you can afford to lose.
Trade forex, indices, metal, and more at industry-low spreads and lightning-fast execution.
Sign up for a PU Prime Live Account with our hassle-free process.
Effortlessly fund your account with a wide range of channels and accepted currencies.
Access hundreds of instruments under market-leading trading conditions.
Trading Platforms
Learn
About PU Prime
Corporate
Please note the Website is intended for individuals residing in jurisdictions where accessing the Website is permitted by law.
Please note that PU Prime and its affiliated entities are neither established nor operating in your home jurisdiction.
By clicking the "Acknowledge" button, you confirm that you are entering this website solely based on your initiative and not as a result of any specific marketing outreach. You wish to obtain information from this website which is provided on reverse solicitation in accordance with the laws of your home jurisdiction.
Thank You for Your Acknowledgement!
Ten en cuenta que el sitio web está destinado a personas que residen en jurisdicciones donde el acceso al sitio web está permitido por la ley.
Ten en cuenta que PU Prime y sus entidades afiliadas no están establecidas ni operan en tu jurisdicción de origen.
Al hacer clic en el botón "Aceptar", confirmas que estás ingresando a este sitio web por tu propia iniciativa y no como resultado de ningún esfuerzo de marketing específico. Deseas obtener información de este sitio web que se proporciona mediante solicitud inversa de acuerdo con las leyes de tu jurisdicción de origen.
Thank You for Your Acknowledgement!
